RF Insights: May Market Update

Rice Fundamental Highlights

• USDA May 12 WASDE was the first official projection for new crop.  Unfortunately, WASDE used the March 31 Prospective Plantings acreage which we know is too high for long grain. As a result, actual production will be much lower than the WASDE projects.  
• WASDE seems to be too high on new crop domestic use/residual at 311 million bushels.
• WASDE showed overall Medium Grain production to be up 5% compared to 2024 and ending stocks for 25/26 are projected to be about the same as the current year.
• Long grain rough rice exports continue to drastically lag year-ago levels.  
• Long grain milled rice exports are down slightly compared to year-ago levels.
• World rice stocks are projected to be ample (unchanged from the current year at 185 mil. metric tons).

July ’25 Rough Rice Futures

Key:
Orange Line: 9-day moving average
Blue Line: 27-day moving average

CBOT July ’25 Rough Rice Values, 4/1/25 through 5/12/25

U.S. Long Grain Rice Supply-Demand

U.S. Medium Grain Rice Supply-Demand

CBOT Receipts As of 5-9-25

CTFC Commitment of Traders

September ’25 Rough Rice Futures

Key:
Orange Line: 9-day moving average
Blue Line: 27-day moving average

Rice Market Summary

OLD CROP:  

CBOT July ’25 rice futures hit a low of $12.25 on 4/28/25 and quickly bounced back to $13.375 on 5/1/25, however in recent days has traded mostly between $12.60 and $12.90.  Milled rice prices in Asia, South America, and the U.S. continue to soften.  

CBOT receipts stand at 732 as of 5/9/25, primarily in McGehee and Diaz.  

NEW CROP:

September futures have lightly traded between $12.90 and $13.25 in recent days.  The May 12 WASDE report was bearish for new crop rice, however most industry players believe acres are much lower than the acres USDA used for their initial projections.  USDA will release their June acreage report on June 30, 2025 and should be much closer to reality.  Prices may be weak until lower acres are confirmed and/or demand improves.

Soybean Fundamental Highlights

• The May 12 Supply and Demand report from USDA showed little change from the previous update for old crop, but it did show ending stocks down to 350 million bushels.  
• The projected average price for old crop remained at $9.95.  
• The first projection for new crop was bullish, with the lower acres and better exports than expected.  Ending stocks were projected at 295 million bushels for the 25/26 crop year.
• The expected average farm price for new crop soybeans was projected at $10.25/ bu.
• World soybean stocks are projected to remain nearly flat after a few years of increases.
• Traders will be focused on U.S. weather and tariff/trade developments with China, Mexico, and E.U. in the coming weeks.

July ’25 Soybeans

Key:
Orange Line: 9-day moving average
Blue Line: 27-day moving average

CBOT July ’25 Soybean Values, 4/1/25 through 5/12/25

U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand

World Soybean Production & Stocks

November ’25 Soybeans

Soybean Market Summary

OLD CROP:

July futures were trading in the low to mid $10 range until the U.S. / China trade delegation had positive meetings resulting in “temporary” tariff reductions.  Soybean meal values have remained steady in recent weeks and basis has slightly improved.  The soybean oil market has been volatile as traders await the proposed biofuel RVO numbers from EPA.

NEW CROP:

The first official USDA WASDE projection for new crop was bullish with ending stocks projected at 295 million bushels.  The projection for exports was 1.815 billion bushels, which could be high in an increased tariff environment.  Weather risk will help to counter the export risk as USDA plugged in 52.5 for the new crop yield which could easily be 1-2 bushels per acre too high unless weather is ideal all summer.

Weather Outlook

The Mississippi River and Ohio River graphs show receding levels after last month’s extreme rain events, which should allow normal navigation/shipping for the next several weeks.  The near term precipitation outlook shows more rain for Eastern Arkansas.  The 8-14 day precipitation outlook shows to be above normal in late May with normal to slightly below normal temperatures.

NOAA Temperature General Outlook

NOAA Precipitation General Outlook

NWS 7-Day Precipitation Outlook

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