RF Insights: December Market Update

Rice Fundamental Highlights

• The December WASDE report made only slight changes to the long grain balance sheet.  Imports were reduced about two million bushels, but exports were reduced about four million bushels.
• As a result, projected ending stocks were increased two million bushels to 82 million bushels. 
• Export demand remains poor for rough rice while continued sales to Iraq provide a good base for milled rice exports.
• CBOT receipts remain at 1759.
• Early indications for crop returns indicate rice acres will decline again in 2026 which could provide the fundamental input needed for the markets to rally.

January ’26 Rough Rice Futures

Key:
Orange Line: 9-day moving average
Blue Line: 27-day moving average

CBOT January ’26 Rough Rice Values, 11/3/25 through 12/19/25

 CBOT Receipts As of 12-18-25

CFTC Commitments of Traders

*NOTE: DATA STILL NOT CURRENT DUE TO RECENT GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

‍Soybean Fundamental Highlights

• The December WASDE made no changes to the soybean balance sheet compared to their November projection. 
• Ending stocks remain at 290 million bushels.
• The market has sold off in December as a result of a lack of new bullish inputs.
• China appears to have purchased around 8 million metric tons out of the 12 million agreed to in the recent trade deal.  The remainder of purchases may be spread out through the spring of 2026.
• Uncertainty regarding biofuel policy, also remains a drag on the soybean complex.  RVO proposed volumes from EPA were better than expected, but they continue to delay the rule finalization.  Current expectations are that EPA won’t finalize the rules until March.
• South American weather and U.S. planting intentions will be key market drivers as we start the 2026 calendar year. 

January ’26 Soybeans

Key:
Orange Line: 9-day moving average
Blue Line: 27-day moving average

CBOT January  ’26 Soybean Values, 11/3/25 through 12/19/25

 River / Weather

The Mississippi River and Ohio River graphs show expected improvements in the river levels, at least in the short term.  Continued rains will be needed for sustained improvement. 

The near-term precipitation outlook shows little rain for Arkansas and Southern Missouri.  Temperatures are expected to be above normal for the next couple weeks. 

 NWS 7 day Precipitation Forecast

 NOAA Precipitation and Temperature General Outlook