RF Insights: November Market Update

Rice Fundamental Highlights

• After missing the September WASDE update due to the government shutdown, the November WASDE was released 4 days late on November 14.  Unfortunately, it will take until January to get caught up on export sales reports and the CFTC report timeline is still unknown.
• The November WASDE report lowered field yields and left all other supply and demand data the same.  Projected ending stocks were lowered slightly to 80 million bushels. 
• Export demand remains poor for rough rice while continued sales to Iraq provide a good base for milled rice exports. 
• CBOT receipts increased to 1759 after the November delivery cycle.
• Early indications for crop returns indicate rice acres could decline again in 2026 which could provide the fundamental input needed for the markets to rally.
• The medium grain milled rice market is holding up better than long grain.

January ’26 Rough Rice Futures

Key:
Orange Line: 9-day moving average
Blue Line: 27-day moving average

CBOT January ’26 Rough Rice Values, 10/1/25 through 11/17/25

CBOT Receipts As of 11-13-25

CFTC Commitments of Traders

STILL NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

Soybean Fundamental Highlights

• The delayed November WASDE showed a lower field yield at 53.0 bushels per acre and slightly lower beginning stocks. 
• Exports were lowered, partially offsetting the lower supply, with projected ending stocks lowered from 300 million bushels to 290 million.
• The market saw a lot of buying recently after the trade deal with China was announced.
• The market dropped on the WASDE numbers, then immediately rebounded on further Chinese optimism. 
• Uncertainty regarding biofuel policy, also remains a drag on the soybean complex.  RVO proposed volumes from EPA were better than expected, but they won’t be finalized until later this year or early next year.

Key:
Orange Line: 9-day moving average
Blue Line: 27-day moving average

CBOT January  ’26 Soybean Values, 10/1/25 through 11/17/25

River / Weather

The Mississippi River and Ohio River graphs show improving levels during November, with navigation getting closer to normal after recent low water.  The likelihood of significant rain in the forecast should further help the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers to recharge. 

The near-term precipitation outlook shows a significant rain event for all of Arkansas and Southern Missouri.  Temperatures are expected to be mostly above normal for the next few weeks. 

NWS 7 day Precipitation Forecast

NOAA Precipitation and Temperature General Outlook

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